Mobile advertising will come in somewhere around $2.5 to $3.0 billion in the US this year. However Kleiner Perkins’ Mary Meeker, who is a former Morgan Stanley analyst, says the opportunity is roughly $20 billion. Among the 110 slides in her presentation to the D10 conference yesterday is one that illustrates her thinking on this point.
This is one of those familiar time spent vs. share of ad spend slides that everyone has seen. Meeker shows online advertising almost catching up with consumer time spent — which Business Insider identified as a bad omen for online ad spending growth.
However there’s a major gap between time spent with mobile and monetization.
There are different stats and metrics floating around regarding how much time is spent with mobile. For example, ad network InMobi has argued that mobile web users are spending more time with mobile now than conventional TV (based on international Q4 2011 survey data). And Flurry Analytics has famously said that people in the US spend more time in mobile apps than they do on the PC internet.
The logic behind these “time spent vs. ad spend” statements is the assumption that money will move with consumer eyeballs. That’s generally a correct assumption at the highest level. Advertisers want to be where audiences are. But friction, fragmentation and other challenges can complicate that migration.
The majority of email messages will be read on mobile devices by the end of 2012, predicts email services firm Return Path. In a newly-released study, the company says mobile email open rates have increased 82.4% between March of 2011 and March of 2012, now accounting for nearly 30% of email opens.
While the apps vs. mobile web argument does matter to marketers and developers, most users don’t think the same way. Indeed, a surprising number of people couldn’t tell you the difference between an app and a mobile website anyway.